By Dr. Binol Darimbang
KOTA MARUDU: Many parties predict that three state seats – Tandek, Matunggong, and Bandau, which are strongholds of the Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS), will fall into the hands of the opposition in the upcoming state election (PRN) following PBS’s loss representing GRS in the Kota Marudu Parliament in the recent general election.
However, based on recent research and surveys in these three state seats, grassroots findings show that PBS/GRS still has influence despite facing strong competition from the Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Malaysia (KDM)especially in the Tandek and Matunggong state seats.
The findings of this study focus on three state constituencies located within the P168 Kota Marudu parliamentary constituency, specifically through several state elections held during the 12th General Election (2008), 13th General Election (2013), 14th General Election (2018), and 16th General Election (2020).
Understanding the outcomes of these elections is crucial for conducting an initial analysis of the current political landscape and electoral dynamics in Sabah.
Furthermore, the addition of a new state assembly constituency, N6 Bandau, is expected to reduce the number of voters in the Matunggung and Tandek constituencies.
The establishment of this new constituency within the P168 Bandau parliamentary area is anticipated to enhance the level of service provided by elected representatives to the residents. Simultaneously, it will facilitate interactions between representatives and constituents to discuss matters related to community welfare and further stimulate development in the state electoral division.
An examination of the elections from the 12th, 13th, 14th, and 16th General Elections reveals that traditionally, the PBS party, which was part of the BN coalition, won these elections. This changed in the 16th General Election when PBS aligned with GRS, with candidates from PBS-BN winning in N4 Matunggung, represented by YB Sarapin Magana in the 12th and 13th elections. In the 14th election, Julita Mojungki from PBS-BN emerged victorious, and she also won in the 16th election under the PBS-GRS banner. In N6 Bandau, YB Wetrom Bahanda from the PN party secured victory, attributed to political collaboration with PBS and other parties within the GRS coalition.
The demographic composition of voters in the N6 Bandau area includes various ethnic groups, predominantly the KDM (Dusun Tobilung, Rungus, Kimaragang), with Bajau communities primarily residing in coastal areas and Chinese populations in town centres.
In the Tandek state seat, previously known as N5 Tandek during the 12th and 13th General Elections, the seat was won by the PBS-BN coalition, represented by Maximus Ongkili. In the 14th and 16th General Elections, the constituency was re-designated as N7 Tandek, which was again secured by PBS, this time through YB Hendrus Anding.
The majority of the population in N7 Tandek comprises the Kimaragang, Tinagas, Bajau, and Chinese communities.
Analyzing the electoral patterns from the 16th General Election, it is evident that the ethnic groups in Sabah are increasingly inclined to collaborate politically, and the post-16th Election political landscape reflects a trend towards cooperation and understanding among various political parties.
In the context of the Matunggung state constituency during the 12th State Election (2004-2008),Jornah Mozihim secured the N4 Matunggung seat under the BN-PBS banner, garnering 4,675 votes, which accounted for 53.13% of the total. Independent candidate James Rubinsin Kotulai received 3,401 votes (38.65%), while the BERSEKUTU party’s Berman Angkap obtained 260 votes (2.95%), and Pasok Jauning @ Tomas Malukis received 217 votes (2.47%).
The voter turnout was 64.73%, with a total of 8,800 votes cast. Jornah’s majority stood at 1,274 votes, representing 14.48%. In the 13th State Election (2008-2013), Sarapin Magana achieved 6,701 votes (61.60%), while PKR’s Muada Ojihi received 3,719 votes (34.19%), and BERSEKUTU’s Santain Manurun garnered 191 votes (1.76%), resulting in a majority of 2,982 votes (27.41%).
The voter turnout was 10,879, equating to 70.64%, and Sarapin won on the BN-PBS ticket. In the 2013 elections, PKR candidate Jelin Dasanap (Jelani Hamdan) received 6,947 votes (43.67%), while PBS’s Sarapin Magana followed closely with 6,627 votes (41.66%). STAR’s Marunsai Dawai obtained 1,536 votes (9.66%), SAPP’s Richard Jun received 367 votes (2.31%), and independent candidate Jolius Mawai garnered 54 votes (0.34%). Jelin won this election with a narrow majority of 320 votes (2.01%). During the 14th General Election (2013-2014), Jelani Dasanap (Hamdan) won on the PKR ticket, later resigning to contest as an independent candidate, successfully retaining the Matunggung seat until 2018.
In the 2018 elections, PBS candidate Julita Mojungki received 6,946 votes (40.27%), while PKR’s Sazalye Donol Abdullah obtained 5,259 votes (30.49%). STAR’s Marunsai Dawai received 2,968 votes (17.21%), PCS Sarapin Magana received 843 votes, accounting for 7.54% of the total. GAGASAN Hibin Masalin garnered 223 votes, representing 1.99%, while BEBAS Ronald Tampasok secured 82 votes, or 0.74%. BEBAS Josef Emmanuel obtained 51 votes, which is 0.46%. The voter turnout was 11,427, constituting 66.78%, with Julita Mojungki achieving a majority of 1,510 votes.
Initial analysis of the political situation in N5 Matunggung
After the general election for N4 Matunggung since PRU12,13, has been won by PBS-BN, except for PRU 14 DUN Matunggung won by PKR and then a year after that, Jelani as ADUN Matunggung has become Independent and a by-election was won by the PBS candidate Julita Mojungki. PRU16 N4 Matunggung then known as N5 Matunggung was won by Julita once again through the PBS-BN Party. Furthermore, PRU16 this time DUN Matunggung known as N5 Matunggung, once again won by PBS-GRS. The victory of PBS this time can be evaluated based on several issues that need to be discussed.
The momentum of cooperation and unity among the coalition parties in the government is still fragile and this gives an advantage to the opposition. However, the agreement and cooperation among the opposition parties are also very difficult to gain voter support. This situation causes voters to have no choice but to still choose their existing representatives.
Voters in N5 Matunggung actually have a wide choice of whether the representatives can truly represent them to bring about changes in N5 Matunggung. There are many political figures in N5 Matunggung, consisting of professionals, teachers, traders, and so on.
Professional figures such as lawyers Hibin Masalin, Sazalye Donol, Jelani Hamdan, and Richard Kastum are already familiar to voters, as some of them have attempted to contest in elections multiple times without success. They have faced defeat in every election, with the exception of Jelani Hamdan, who won a seat during the 13th General Election but served only a single term.
In the upcoming 17th General Election, many political parties are expected to nominate candidates based on ethnic backgrounds. For instance, UMNO plans to contest a greater number of State Assembly seats compared to the 16th General Election. In the 16th Election held in September 2020, UMNO/Barisan Nasional (BN) collaborated with Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) to contest 31 out of 73 State Assembly seats. Meanwhile, the Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat (KDM) has expressed its intention to compete for all State Assembly seats where the majority of voters belong to the Kadazandusun and Murut communities in the 17th State Election.
Consequently, it is possible that the current Assemblyman and Member of Parliament for P168 Kota Marudu, YB Datuk Wetrom Bahanda, may consider relocating to contest in the N5 Matunggung constituency.
If this statement holds true, Datuk Wetrom will face Datuk Julita in the upcoming 17th election. According to voters in N6 Bandau, he has relocated in an effort to secure his position as a Member of the State Assembly (DUN). They claim that he has been unable to fulfill his previous election promises due to his opposition status, which has not aligned with the state government.
Meanwhile, political figures opposed to Wetrom in Matunggung have indicated that if he transitions to N5 Matunggung, he is likely to encounter a fate similar to that of Jornah, Sarapindan, and Jelani, who, despite having previously won the DUN Matunggung, may face defeat in the forthcoming election. During the field study, one respondent noted that Datuk Wetrom had served as the Chief of the UMNO Division and the Youth Chief of UMNO in Matunggung, yet there has been no significant development to boast about for the voters and the community at large.
The informant further remarked that since his election to Parliament P168 Kota Marudu, there has been a lack of development in that area.
The issues of political development and federalism remain pertinent and cannot be separated in the campaign for the upcoming 17th state election.
The relationship between the state government and the federal government, especially in relation to economic or financial resources to implement several infrastructure projects, particularly in the interior areas of Matunggung. Development-related issues continue to be a political asset in gaining voter support. Can Wetrom ensure that his relationship with the state and federal governments is good and that he will receive sufficient allocations to implement several infrastructure projects in N5 Matunggung?
Undoubtedly, in the upcoming 17th state election, PBS will defend the seats won by Datuk Julita. Considering that PBS is now part of the GRS coalition, it is certain that coalition parties such as STAR, SAPP, USNO, LDP, PCS, and PGRS will join forces to support the PBS candidate.
This alliance will give an advantage to PBS-GRS. Previously, STAR, LDP, PCS, SAPP, USNO, and PGRS parties have competed against PBS, but PBS still managed to retain the seats with a very impressive majority. According to an anonymous respondent, this state election will witness the unity of GRS coalition parties to win seats and demonstrate the strength and solidarity of this coalition, similar to the Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS).
The 16th State Election was the first election for PRN N6, Bandau after the new boundaries in P168 Kota Marudu. The DUN candidate from Warisan, represented by Majamis Timbong, received 2,500 votes (26%), Webley Disism from PCS received 477 votes, Raphael Biun received 331 votes, Azahari Amin from USNO received 477 votes, and meanwhile Wetrom Bahanda received 5,863 votes as the Perikatan Nasional (PN) candidate (60%) and thus won the DUN N6 Bandau for the first time.
In the N6 Bandau election, PBS did not contest to allow PN to compete as a political coalition partner of PRN 16. Wetron’s victory, due to the support of PBS-GRS, PN, and BN. However, in the 15th general election, he left the coalition to join KDM as a candidate against Maximus.
He made history by defeating Maximus after 27 years of service as a Member of Parliament in P168 Kota Marudu as a PBS candidate.
His victory as the representative of the people in N6 Bandau was eagerly awaited by those who voted for him. However, in the upcoming 17th election, he will face the PGRS Division Chief, Datuk Maijol Mahap, in N6 Bandau.
According to field observations, there are several informants who are dissatisfied with his services as a representative of the people in N6 Bandau. Many infrastructure promises made by him during the 16th state election campaign could not be fulfilled.
Initial Analysis of N6 Bandau Political Scenario
If it is true that Datuk Wetrom Bahanda will move from DUN N6 to DUN N5 Matunggung, then N6 Bandau will certainly become a battleground for leaders from PGRS and PBS. Meanwhile, KDM will definitely seek to defend the seat won by Datuk Wetrom, who has left GRS and declared himself as DUN KDM.
So far, the figure who will replace Datuk Wetrom as the KDM candidate for the 17th general election is still a mystery, as there is no potential candidate identified yet, although the KDM Secretary-General, Jaiping Minsu, is rumored to be contesting in N6 Bandau if Datuk Wetrom moves.
PGRS N6 Bandau Division Chief Datuk Maijol Mahap is definitely preparing himself as a candidate for the upcoming election. In addition, Datuk Wetrom’s younger sister, Datuk Redonah Bahanda, who is the PGRS N6 Bandau Women’s Chief and also the Political Secretary to the Chief Minister, is also rumored to be a potential candidate.
However, according to a respondent, GRS will make a decision through a consensus of the GRS coalition parties to approve and select a candidate to ensure GRS’s victory in the upcoming N6 Bandau state election.
Before the re-delineation and addition of parliamentary and State Assembly constituencies, the Tandek State Assembly constituency was known as N5 Tandek.
The majority of voters in the Tandek State Assembly constituency are from the KDM community, representing 75%, while the remaining 25% are from other ethnic groups. To better understand the voting pattern scenario in the N5 Tandek State Assembly constituency, it is best to start in the year 2004.
The state election for N5 Tandek in 2004 was won by Maximus Ongkili under the PBS ticket, defeating the Independent and PKR parties, with Maximus receiving a total of 5,069 votes and defeating the Independent candidate Mr. George Sangkin who received 2,356 votes.
The total number of voters in N5 Tandek at that time was 18,652.
In the 2008 election, the total number of voters in N5 Tandek was 16,538. Once again, PBS retained the N5 Tandek State Assembly constituency, this time won by Anita Baranting with a total of 5,598 votes. Anita defeated candidates from the Independent, PKR, and Bersekutu.
In the 2013 state election, Anita and PBS retained the N5 Tandek State Assembly constituency with a larger number of votes, totaling 9,399. The closest candidate from PKR received 4,124 votes. The STAR party received 2,668 votes, while the SAPP party received 380 votes. The total number of eligible voters at that time was 22,220.
The 16th State Election witnessed the change of the name of DUN Tandek from N5 to N7 Tandek. In addition, PBS also presented a new face, Hendrus Anding, as the PBS candidate, who faced Anita, the independent candidate. Furthermore, UPKO, BN, PCS, and LDP also competed against PBS.
The total number of votes obtained by the PBS candidate was 3,796 votes. Meanwhile, Anita (INDEPENDENT) obtained 2,364 votes. UPKO and BN each received 1,968 (UPKO) and 1,520 (BN) votes. The LDP candidate received 236 votes, and the PCS party received 395 votes. The total number of eligible voters was 15,971 people.
The current political scenario in Sabah, especially post-12th-16th State Elections in N5 Tandek, can be evaluated based on the unity and momentum of cooperation among political parties within a coalition government. In N7 Tandek, there is a lack of unity and cooperation momentum evident during the 15th state election and culminating in the 16th State Election. It is very clear when STAR contested against PBS during the 2018 State Election, and subsequently UPKO and BN opposed PBS, even though PBS emerged victorious in the end.
In the 17th State Election, current ADUN YB Datuk Hendrus Anding from PBS will certainly defend the seat he won because N7 Tandek has been a stronghold of PBS since 1985. Opposition candidates such as KDM, Warisan, UPKO, and UMNO will certainly compete if the opposition parties fail to form a coalition like GRS.
As of now, the analysis conducted on individuals who wish to contest through UPKO, Warisan, and UMNO tickets is still unclear because most leaders of the mentioned parties have crossed over to the GRS party, except for KDM where the leader mentioned, Dato’ Baintin ADUN as the vice President of KDM, is highly likely to try his luck against Hendrus Anding.
Secondly, it can be described that the position of cooperation among opposition political parties or coalitions of opposition parties in Sabah at this time is still loose, especially in N7 Tandek. At the same time, the unity of opposition parties is also seen as fragile, causing a split in votes and ultimately benefiting the ruling party from this division.
Thirdly, the issues of political development and federalism are still relevant and cannot be separated in the PRN campaign since long ago. This gives an initial picture that the voting patterns and support in this election are still influenced by the relationship between the state government and the federal government, especially those related to economic or financial resources to implement several infrastructure projects, especially in the interior areas of Tandek. Based on development-related issues, it remains a political asset to garner voter support.
Conclusion
The 17th Sabah State Election (PRN) is expected to be held in 2025. This 17th PRN is seen as a potential to open a new political chapter in Sabah since the GRS Government took over the administration in Sabah about three years ago. The awareness of Sabah leaders has made GRS a new platform called “Sabah Fist, and love Sabah”. This slogan builds awareness among their past leaders.
With this awareness, the 17th PRN will bring unity and solidarity among leaders in Sabah, especially GSR itself. This change is very important, and it is only fair to be seen as a space and the best opportunity to end the political uncertainty in Sabah, which has been detrimental to the people and the state of Sabah for so long.
Nevertheless, the unity among the opposition parties, particularly Warisan, UPKO, KDM, UMNO, PN, and PH, remains tenuous and less robust compared to the cohesion of GRS, which is currently leading the government.
This article serves as an overview of the emerging trends and preliminary benchmarks regarding the political landscape in the three state constituencies of Matunggung, Bandau, and Tandek.
Consequently, the political scenario in these constituencies is not fixed, as politics is inherently flexible. Therefore, the initial findings on this matter require further elaboration through a more systematic study. Considering the strength demonstrated by YB Hendrus Anding during the last election and the effective campaign efforts he exhibited, most respondents indicated that PBS is still capable of retaining the N7 Tandek constituency in the upcoming PRN.
Reference
Mohammad Agus Yusoff. (1992). Politik Akomodasi Di Sabah. Kuala Lumpur: Laser Skill Press Sdn. Bhd.
Rizal & Jumaat. (2002). Politik Etnik & Perkembangan Politik Baru. Dlm. Politik Baru Dalam Pilihanraya Umum. Bangi: Penerbit UKM.
Roslin, G.M (2000). Political Science: An introduction. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice.
Vasil, R.K. (1972). The Malaysian General Election of 1969. Kuala Lumpur: Oxford University Press. VII, 115pp.
Wilson, Kenneth. (2012). How Russioans view electoral fairness: A qualitative Analaysis. Erupean Studes. Vol 64(1)
Online references:
http://ppn.spr.gov.my/sabah
https://www.spr.gov.my
https://www.hmetro.com.my/mutakhir/2022/12/913966/kedudukan-hajiji-sebagai-ketua menteri-tidak-terjejas-peguam
