By: Dr. Jikat Binol Darimbang
KOTA KINABALU: A potential political alliance between Warisan, Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STAR), and Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat (KDM) has introduced a significant shift in Sabah’s political landscape.
The key question now is whether this coalition can genuinely contest the dominance of Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS).
The concise answer is: possibly — but not inevitably.
To evaluate this realistically, it’s essential to examine Sabah’s current political support base, with particular attention to two critical regions: the East Coast and areas where KDM holds strong influence.
Warisan: Stronghold on the East Coast, but not dominant across all of Sabah
The outcome of the 17th Sabah State Election in 2025 paints a clear picture. GRS emerged as the largest coalition with 29 seats, followed by Warisan, which won 25. STAR secured two seats, and KDM claimed one.
Yet, seat counts alone don’t capture the full political landscape. Warisan’s strength is particularly evident along the East Coast.
In Semporna, for instance, Shafie Apdal achieved a decisive victory in Senallang, capturing approximately 79.6% of the vote.
Jaujan Sambakong secured approximately 74.7% of the vote in Sulabayan, while Jamil Hamzah obtained about 67.6% in Bugaya.
Warisan also claimed victories in Tungku, Segama, Silam, Sri Tanjong, Merotai, and Sebatik, highlighting the East Coast as one of its key strongholds.
However, caution is warranted.
There are no official figures to support a blanket claim that Warisan enjoys, for instance, 60% support across the entire East Coast region.
The East Coast itself is politically and ethnically diverse.
A more precise assessment would be that Warisan has a solid base of support in specific areas—particularly Semporna and parts of Tawau–Lahad Datu—but this backing is not uniformly spread throughout the region.
Prior to PRN17, studies already identified the East Coast as a core area of strength for Warisan, especially when contrasted with the party’s limited reach in the KDMR area.
The most important battlefield
the East Coast is one of Warisan’s strengths, then KDMR is a much more important strategic battleground for STAR, KDM, PBS, and other local parties.
Post-PRN17 analysis shows that around 45% of KDMR support is estimated to have been given to the main KDMR parties, including PBS, STAR, UPKO, and KDM.
At the same time, Warisan is estimated to only receive around 9% support from KDMR voters.
This figure sends a very clear political message:
Warisan has a problem penetrating the heart of KDMR.
On the other hand, STAR and KDM have an advantage because their identity, grassroots network, and political narrative are closer to the issues of the KDMR community.
But once again, the figure of 45% does not mean that STAR and KDM alone control 45% of the KDMR votes. It is an estimate of the overall support for the main KDMR parties.
This is why the emergence of a Warisan–STAR–KDM alliance is interesting.
Why can this coalition be a threat to GRS?
In theory, this combination has three complementary components.
First, Warisan brings the strength of the East Coast.
Warisan has a strong organizational structure, electoral experience, and political figures, especially in certain areas of the East Coast.
Second, STAR brings the strength of KDMR.
STAR has a long history in Sabah’s autonomy politics and has its own influence in the Kadazandusun and Murut areas.
Third, KDM brings a new network into KDMR politics.
KDM, particularly thru the influence of leaders and local political networks, has the potential to capture some of the votes that have been split between PBS, STAR, Warisan, and other parties.
If these three forces can truly be combined, then a major change will occur:
Warisan no longer needs to penetrate KDMR alone. STAR and KDM can be a bridge for Warisan to KDMR voters.
On the contrary, STAR and KDM no longer need to operate alone in areas that require broader support from the non-KDMR community.
This is the formula that can make the coalition dangerous to GRS.
But there is one big question: can votes really be combined?
This is where the political reality of Sabah becomes more complicated.
Political votes cannot be mixed like ordinary mathematics.
If Warisan gets 30%, STAR 15%, and KDM 10%, we cannot automatically say that their coalition has 55%.
Some STAR voters might not want to vote for Warisan.
Some KDM supporters might not want to accept the Warisan candidate.
Some Warisan supporters may not have an emotional connection with STAR or KDM.
In fact, factors such as the candidate, family, village, religion, ethnicity, local issues, and the performance of the elected representative can outweigh party labels
The East Coast represents a key stronghold for Warisan, but the KDMR region holds far greater strategic importance for parties like STAR, KDM, PBS, and other local Sabah-based groups.
Post-PRN17 data suggests that roughly 45% of KDMR voters supported the main parties rooted in the KDMR community—PBS, STAR, UPKO, and KDM—while Warisan secured only about 9% of support from this electorate.
This gap highlights a clear political challenge: Warisan struggles to gain traction within KDMR heartlands.
In contrast, STAR and KDM hold an edge due to their deeper cultural ties, established grassroots presence, and political messaging that resonates more closely with KDMR concerns.
However, the 45% figure should not be interpreted as STAR and KDM collectively commanding nearly half of KDMR votes; rather, it reflects combined support across the major KDMR-aligned parties.
This context makes the potential alliance between Warisan, STAR, and KDM particularly noteworthy.
Why might such a coalition pose a threat to GRS? Theoretically, it brings together three distinct but complementary strengths.
Warisan contributes its well-developed organization, electoral track record, and influence along the East Coast. STAR adds decades of involvement in Sabah’s autonomy movement and maintains strong connections within Kadazandusun and Murut communities.
KDM, meanwhile, introduces fresh political networks within KDMR areas, potentially consolidating votes previously scattered among competing local parties.
If these three forces can effectively unite, the dynamics shift significantly. Warisan would no longer have to break into KDMR territory on its own—STAR and KDM could serve as conduits to those voters.
At the same time, STAR and KDM could leverage Warisan’s broader appeal to reach non-KDMR constituencies where they traditionally lack support.
This synergy could create a formidable opposition front. Yet a major obstacle remains: can their voter bases actually merge? Sabah’s political landscape is rarely that straightforward.
Electoral support doesn’t add up like simple arithmetic. A 30% base for Warisan, 15% for STAR, and 10% for KDM doesn’t automatically translate into 55% for a coalition.
Loyalties are not transferable by design—some STAR supporters may reject Warisan, some KDM followers may resist backing Warisan candidates, and many Warisan loyalists may feel little affinity with STAR or KDM.
Ultimately, personal factors—such as candidate choice, family ties, village dynamics, religion, ethnicity, local issues, and incumbent performance—often carry more weight than party affiliation alone.
