By Mohd Ustar Abdul Ghani
KOTA KINABALU: The sudden passing of Bung Moktar Radin on 5 December 2025 has thrust the political map of Sabah and, in particular, the Lamag state seat and the Kinabatangan parliamentary seat into flux.
As the Election Commission of Malaysia (EC) prepares to set dates for by-elections, all eyes now turn to what these contests might reveal about voter sentiment, party strength, and whether sympathy for the late Bung Moktar might shape the outcome.
In the just concluded 17th state election on 29 November 2025, Bung Moktar defended the Lamag seat with a razor-thin majority of 153 votes in a six-cornered contest.
Lamag, part of the larger Kinabatangan Parliamentary constituency, was contested only the second time; previously, in the 16th state election, he had won with a 661-vote majority.
His popularity in the region stemmed from decades of representation as Kinabatangan MP, and his position as State BN Chairman gave him a strong foothold, despite increasing competition and changing electorates.
With his passing, both seats, the N58 State seat of Lamag and the P187 seat of Kinabatangan, have become vacant as stipulated by constitutional rules in Art. 54(1) of the Federal Constitution and Art. 21(5) of the Sabah State Constitution, mandating a by-election within 60 days of official notification.
Following Bung Moktar’s death, suggestions have pointed to a possible “sympathy vote” benefitting his party, BN, and its component party, UMNO, in both Lamag and Kinabatangan.
Supporters contend that many voters, particularly those who backed Bung Moktar or respected him in life, may view the by-election as a way to honor his legacy.
Sentiment revealed that his “political legacy remains strong in Kinabatangan and Lamag,” which could translate into votes now.
That said, translating sympathy into actual votes is not instinctive. The electorates in Sabah, especially younger voters, have shown increasing focus on pragmatic issues, infrastructure, economic opportunities, quality of life, and performance rather than party loyalty.
While sympathy might give BN a temporary advantage, it cannot guarantee victory. The party needs to carefully manage its candidate selection and messaging.
The new candidate must “reflect Bung Moktar’s aspirations.” He or she must resonate with local sentiment, charisma, and track record.
Moreover, the broader Sabah political landscape, with shifting party loyalties and a strong “Sabah for Sabahans” and “Sabah First” sentiment, complicates matters.
Younger voters, especially in Lamag, where about a third of registered voters are aged 18-29, have shown more issue-based and less personality-based voting behavior.
As the by-election looms, political watchers and voters alike will be watching who BN/UMNO nominates as their candidates.
There is a strong possibility that BN might field Bung Moktar’s son, Mohd Kurniawan Naim, the present UMNO Youth treasurer, and Jaffry Ariffin, the Assemblyman for Sukau, to contest in the by-election.
Both Naim and Jafry hold a very close relationship with Bung Moktar. Being an uprising political figure in UMNO,
Naim is seen as the most suitable candidate to continue his father’s legacy.
Jafry, who has been loyal to Bung Moktar, could continue his legacy in Kinabatangan.
From a more analytical perspective, the outcome in both by-elections would not change the present positions in Parliament or the Sabah State Assembly.
That could be another factor that will give BN the advantage.
The upcoming Lamag and Kinabatangan by-elections will be more than just a routine electoral formality.
They will serve as an early barometer for voters’ mood in Sabah post the 2025 state election and a test for whether the emotional wave following Bung Moktar’s death can translate into sustained political support.
Sympathy may offer an opening but only if backed by credible representation and a campaign that resonates with evolving voter expectations.
I see these by-elections favoring BN/UMNO once again.
Bung Moktar’s legacy in Kinabatangan and Lamag will definitely be continued to be carried on by his own son Mohd Kurniawan Naim. There is also a big possibility that Naim would contest in both Parliamentary and state seats. This may be considered as a strategic planning to ensure both seats remain under BN/UMNO. The “sympathy vote” factor may favour this proposition.
