By TENGKU NOOR SHAMSIAH TENGKU ABDULLAH
KUALA LUMPUR: Barisan Nasional (BN) did more than retain Johor. It secured a commanding mandate. When the Election Commission completed the count, BN had won 48 of the state’s 56 seats, restoring a two-thirds supermajority and recording its strongest performance in Johor since 2008.
The coalition captured almost 60% of the popular vote, compared with Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) 33%.
PH’s representation fell from 12 seats to eight. Perikatan Nasional (PN), despite contesting 33 seats, failed to win a single constituency.
Newcomer Bersama and the once-rising Muda also suffered decisive defeats, with all of their candidates losing their election deposits.
On the surface, the result appeared to be a resounding endorsement of the incumbent state administration.
But viewed through the lens of one of the analysts who accurately anticipated the outcome before polling day, it tells a more nuanced story — one in which dissatisfaction with PH proved as important as support for BN.
Before polling day, the prevailing assumption was that higher voter turnout would disadvantage BN, based on the belief that many voters who stayed home during the pandemic-affected 2022 election were largely anti-government.
Turnout did increase, rising to 67.44% from 54.9% in 2022.
Yet BN expanded its majority even further.
For Dr Oh Ei Sun, Senior Fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, the explanation lies in why those voters returned.
“There’s a higher turnout this time primarily because the last election was held during the pandemic, and a lot of people either did not come out to vote or did not come back from Singapore to vote,” he said.
“This is a more normalised turnout for a typical election.”
More importantly, he believes many returning voters were motivated less by optimism than by disappointment.
“Instead of voting for reform, which was supposed to be spearheaded by PH, a lot of those who got disillusioned by the promises of reform decided to come out to punish PH,” he said.
“It is also a form of protest vote.”
That distinction is significant.
In Dr Oh’s reading, the election should not simply be interpreted as overwhelming enthusiasm for BN.
Rather, it reflected voters who were sufficiently satisfied with Johor’s administration under Menteri Besar Onn Hafiz Ghazi while simultaneously expressing frustration with PH’s perceived failure to deliver promised reforms.
“In Johor, they felt comfortable with what Onn Hafiz has been doing, and therefore they came out in droves to reward him with another term.”
Dr Oh believes two important trends were underestimated before polling day.
The first was the growing popularity of Onn Hafiz himself.
“Some of us underestimated the appeal of the Menteri Besar, Onn Hafiz, who according to many did a very good job attracting foreign investment, especially in the southern parts of Johor,” he said.
“I was there and saw a lot of new developments. He is on an upward trajectory.”
Onn Hafiz retained Machap with a commanding majority of 15,375 votes, while BN’s strongest gains came across Johor’s rapidly industrialising southern corridor, where investment in data centres and manufacturing has accelerated.
The second was the pace of PH’s electoral decline.
DAP, traditionally PH’s strongest urban component in Johor, fell from 14 seats in 2022 to six, while PKR was reduced to just one seat.
“PH’s appeal, especially DAP, is on a downward trajectory,” Dr Oh said, describing PKR’s performance as “a very dismal performance.”
BN regained a number of previously PH-held constituencies, including Bukit Batu, Johor Jaya, Perling and Tangkak.
Bukit Batu illustrated just how competitive the contest remained. PKR had retained the seat by only 137 votes in 2022 before BN narrowly reclaimed it this time by 174 votes.
If much of the campaign centred on whether multiple opposition parties would split the anti-BN vote, the election delivered a decisive answer.
PN failed to win a single seat and secured only around 5% of the statewide vote. Its Johor chairman and former Menteri Besar, Sahruddin Jamal, also lost Bukit Kepong.
Even so, Dr Oh cautioned against drawing sweeping national conclusions.
“The green wave was never very strong in the south,” he said.
“Johor remains a fortress state for BN.”
He stopped short of declaring the movement finished.
“I would not rush to the conclusion that the green wave has crested. Let us see how it goes in Negeri Sembilan.”
Bersama endured perhaps the toughest debut of any party.
Led by former ministers Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, it failed to win any of the 15 constituencies it contested, forfeited every election deposit and secured only about 1.5% of the popular vote.
Dr Oh nevertheless urged caution before writing off the party.
“It is very difficult for a party like Bersama, without a lot of resources, to go into an election less than a month after being formed,” he said.
“Let us be kind and not say they ended before they started, but they will still face an uphill struggle to make their appeal known.”
Several analysts argued immediately after the election that BN’s commanding victory would increase pressure on Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim to seek an early general election while political momentum remained favourable.
Dr Oh agrees that pressure will build.
“BN would push Anwar to dissolve Parliament early to carry the Johor momentum into the general election,” he said.
But he questions whether Johor’s momentum can be replicated nationally.
“In the last general election, Umno also performed spectacularly in Johor, yet did not do so well nationally.”
His conclusion runs against much of the immediate post-election commentary.
“The disappointment with PH is huge, so Anwar likely would not dissolve now, but perhaps a year later, so there is still time to make up to PH’s traditional supporters.”
Johor therefore strengthens BN’s political standing within the Unity Government
while simultaneously exposing PH’s vulnerabilities.
The next test will come quickly when Negeri Sembilan goes to the polls on 1 August.
If Johor represented less an embrace of BN than a protest against PH, the question confronting Anwar is whether his
government has enough time to rebuild confidence before facing the electorate again.
Dr Oh Ei Sun is a Senior Fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs and Principal Adviser at the Pacific Research Center of Malaysia
Source – TNS News
