By Datuk Raymond Boin
KOTA KINABALU: Speculation continues about what will happen in Sabah’s politics next year.
First, we will have a new Governor, as it has been announced that Tun Musa Aman will take over the Istana Seri Kinabalu from Tun Juhar Mahiruddin, whose term ends on December 31.
The intense discussions, both positive and negative, about Tun Musa’s appointment that are currently filling the media, especially on WhatsApp, will eventually settle down.
Ultimately, coffee shop conversations will shift back to political issues and how the current situation will change direction.
The pressing question on the minds of the people is: what kind of government will emerge after the 17th State Election (PRN17)?
Many dream of a Sabah free from the control of Putrajaya, enjoying true independence from the interference of parties from Malaya, similar to the current situation in Sarawak.
However, this dream seems hard to achieve since there is no way to prevent any party from Kuala Lumpur from contesting in PRN17.
The only way to reject “outside parties” is through the votes of the people, if the majority of Sabah voters choose only local parties. This spirit has long been growing, recently demonstrated by SAPP when its President, Datuk Yong Teck Lee, announced the party’s withdrawal from Perikatan Nasional (PN).
The reason is clear: SAPP does not support PN’s intention to contest in the upcoming PRN17 in Sabah.
However, regarding the strength of local parties, it is widely known that none of them have the capability to win and govern alone, as was achieved by USNO, Berjaya, and PBS in the past.
Today’s issue is: which parties will unite to form a strong bloc to govern Sabah?
In March, UMNO discussed the possibility of collaborating with Warisan for PRN17.
However, UMNO President Datuk Zahid Hamidi and the Chief of UMNO Sabah admitted that no final decision was made on this matter.
Then, in September, a new approach emerged when UMNO and Sabah Barisan Nasional (BN) agreed in principle to work with Pakatan Harapan (PH) for PRN17.
It seems that the collaboration with Warisan did not materialize because Warisan firmly stated it does not want to ally with parties from outside Sabah.
This could be seen as hypocritical since Warisan has previously contested elections in Malaya.
In November, Warisan’s Information Chief, Datuk Mohd Azis Jamman, declared that “Warisan’s position is clear and consistent,” emphasizing that Warisan President Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal “has repeatedly stated that if Warisan needs to make a choice, its priority is to collaborate only with local Sabah parties.”
Azis’s statement implies that Warisan is no longer confident in contesting alone after their defeat in PRN16.
The next question is: who will Warisan collaborate with?
As a Bumiputera Islamic party, they need to form alliances with Momogun parties and Chinese parties. The success of political coalitions in Sabah today relies on a three-way partnership: Bumiputera Islam, Bumiputera non-Islam (Momogun), and Chinese parties. However, the third corner – the Chinese parties – have become quite weak in Sabah. The LDP has long been silent, and SAPP, which still has a voice, is troubled by the fact that its president is seen as unable to win in any contested area.
Does this mean that a two-way alliance (Bumiputera Islam and Bumiputera Momogun) can compete without joining any Chinese party?
There is also speculation based on the perception that GRS, the current ruling coalition, is showing signs of cracks and is expected to break apart soon after the dissolution of the DUN before PRN17. It is certain that STARSABAH and PBS will work together, even if their plan to merge into one party does not materialize.
Meanwhile, Chief Minister Datuk Hajiji Hj Noor believes that GRS will remain united to face PRN17, while some voters hope that STARSABAH and PBS will join forces with Warisan.
Political observers see this coalition as a strong potential formula for governing after PRN17, with Datuk Dr. Jeffrey Kitingan as Chief Minister.
However, it is important to remember that the scenarios before and after PRN17 are largely speculative thoughts from political analysts, and their accuracy is uncertain.
Ultimately, what will actually happen will only be revealed over time as various issues, events, and political moves unfold in the coming months.
