By Lesaya Sorudim (Political Analyst)
KOTA KINABALU: There is a certain political symbolism in seeing Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal, Datuk Seri Dr Jeffrey Kitingan and Priscella Peter standing together at Batu Sumpah.
The location itself carries historical significance in Sabah’s relationship with the formation of Malaysia.
Therefore, even if the gathering was not intended as the announcement of a political alliance, the image inevitably raises a larger question: what would happen if Warisan, STAR and KDM eventually transformed their present contacts into a genuine electoral coalition?
The arithmetic alone would make such a development significant.
Following the 2025 Sabah state election, Warisan emerged with 25 seats in the state assembly, making it by far the largest of the three parties.
STAR won two seats and KDM one. Current assembly composition therefore gives the three parties a combined 28 seats, although the three parties are not presently operating as one parliamentary bloc.
More important than the arithmetic, however, is the geographical complementarity of their political bases.
Warisan’s principal strength extends across much of the east coast and includes substantial support in Muslim-Bumiputera constituencies.
Its 25 state seats demonstrate that it possesses an established statewide organisation and electoral presence.
Analysts have also identified Warisan’s strength in urban, semi-urban, east-coast and Muslim-Bumiputera areas as one component of a possible local-party alliance.
STAR, meanwhile, brings a different political geography. Its traditional strength is associated particularly with the interior, with Keningau and the surrounding Kadazandusun Murut heartland providing an important base.
Jeffrey Kitingan’s continued political presence gives STAR a distinct identity that could potentially complement Warisan rather than simply duplicate it.
KDM adds another dimension. Although it currently has only one state assemblyman, its political network reaches into areas where Kadazandusun and related indigenous communities form important constituencies.
The party has also previously contested several northern and interior parliamentary seats. In the 2022 election, for example, KDM candidates contested Kota Marudu, Sepanggar, Kota Kinabalu, Kimanis, Beaufort and Keningau.
The possibility of KDM expanding its presence into Tuaran, Kota Belud and Ranau would make the proposed alignment even more strategically interesting.
These areas sit within the broader Kadazandusun political heartland and have historically been contested by several parties.
If KDM were to establish a stronger electoral presence there while STAR consolidated its interior base and Warisan concentrated on constituencies where it already has substantial support, the three parties could potentially reduce direct competition among themselves.
That is perhaps the central issue.
A coalition would not automatically inherit the combined votes of its component parties.
One analyst has calculated that Warisan, STAR and KDM together received about 36.9% of the popular vote in the 2025 Sabah election, but also cautioned that votes are not necessarily transferable between parties because they previously competed against one another.
Consequently, the real test would be seat negotiation, candidate selection and voter transferability. If the three parties could agree on one candidate in each constituency instead of dividing their respective supporters among competing candidates, the electoral equation could change substantially.
For GRS, such an arrangement would introduce a political contest structured differently from the conventional government-versus-opposition model.
Instead of facing several fragmented local challengers, GRS could potentially face a coordinated Sabah-based bloc combining Warisan’s numerical strength, STAR’s interior influence and KDM’s expanding Kadazandusun network.
Yet the Batu Sumpah photograph remains a political signal, not a coalition agreement.
Whether the symbolism eventually develops into a formal electoral pact will depend on negotiations over seats, leadership, policy priorities and the broader question of Sabah’s position within the Federation.
The coming months may therefore reveal whether Batu Sumpah was simply the backdrop for three Sabah leaders appearing together—or an early image of a new political configuration that could fundamentally alter the contest against GRS and PH in the next state election or PRU16.
Given the volatile political landscape across the peninsula and the realistic prospect of three local Sabah parties joining forces, the anticipated coalition of Warisan, STAR, and KDM is positioned to wield significant influence in shaping the Federal government after the general election.
This strategic alliance demonstrates how regional players can decisively impact national governance outcomes, making their participation crucial for any government formation.
