BY TENGKU NOOR SHAMSIAH TENGKU ABDULLAH

KOTA KINABALU:  Sabah heads into its 17th state election within 60 days of the assembly’s dissolution on October 6, setting the stage for yet another fragmented contest in Malaysia’s most politically fluid state.

With 79 seats at stake, the race pits Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), Warisan, Barisan Nasional (BN), Pakatan Harapan (PH), and Perikatan Nasional (PN) against each other in what analysts predict will be a fiercely contested but inconclusive battle.

Political analyst Dr. Oh Ei Sun told TNS News the timing was more practical than strategic. “This is but a month away from automatic dissolution of the state assembly, so it should be viewed as a ‘just in time’ dissolution that hopefully would enable the voting day to evade the typical year-end flood and proceed smoothly,” he said. But he cautioned that timing matters little:

“It does not quite make significant difference if the election were held now or a few months back, as the various major parties are likely to win some seats each, but not necessarily an outright majority.”

The 2020 state election saw GRS, then aligned with Perikatan Nasional, BN and Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS), win 41 of 73 seats to form government. Warisan secured 23 seats, while PH won nine.

GRS was formalised in 2022, anchored by Bersatu, PBS, STAR and SAPP, but later that year Hajiji Noor and Sabah Bersatu leaders quit Bersatu to form Parti Gagasan Rakyat Sabah (Gagasan Rakyat). In 2023, BN pulled support but PH stepped in, allowing Hajiji to retain power.

Dr. Oh, who is Senior Fellow at Singapore Institute of International Affairs said:. such fluidity is likely to persist.

“Sabah politics is likely to remain fluid because both politicians and parties may shift their political allegiance from time to time, as they perceive their interests to be changing.”

For Hajiji, the election is a bid to legitimise his leadership under GRS and Gagasan Rakyat. For Warisan, led by Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal, it is a chance to regain lost ground. “It is likely to remain a significant political force, but it remains to be seen if it could clinch an outright majority,” Dr. Oh noted.

BN, though weakened, still retains its Malay-Muslim strongholds. “BN is likely to remain a significant political force as UMNO has its various political fortresses,” Dr. Oh said. PN, despite losing Bersatu Sabah to GRS, could still matter in close contests.

“It would be interesting to see if PN could remain intact electorally now that much of Bersatu Sabah has left to become GRS,” Dr. Oh observed, adding that even a handful of seats could give PN bargaining power in post-election negotiations.

PH’s influence remains limited by its smaller machinery, but as Dr. Oh pointed out, its fortunes are tied to GRS: “A GRS win or loss would of course reflect on the popular support for PH, but PH is not running in a big way in Sabah.”

Speculation about a “Sabah Bloc” — a coalition of local-based parties — has grown, though Dr. Oh remained cautious: “Let’s see if they could cobble together an exclusively Sabah ruling coalition, or are still so fragmented that they inevitably would have to work with some peninsula-based parties.”

Voter sentiment is expected to hinge on bread-and-butter concerns. “Mainly the lack of minimal infrastructure, ranging from water and electricity to roads and internet, will become the most significant issues in this election, followed by poverty,” Dr. Oh stressed. On the youth vote, he added: “Perhaps a little bit, mostly in more urban and suburban areas.”

While Sabah’s polls are primarily local, their outcome carries symbolic weight for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s unity government. A strong showing by GRS would reinforce PH’s federal alignment, while losses could weaken its standing. Still, Dr. Oh cautioned against overstating the impact:

“A little bit, but not significantly. Election night and perhaps subsequent days would be crucial, as major winning parties scramble to put together a ruling coalition. he said”

The 17th Sabah State Election is shaping up as a contest not just of numbers but of alliances. For Hajiji, it is a test of legitimacy; for Warisan, a bid for revival; for BN, a defence of its core base; and for PN, a chance to prove it still has a role in Sabah’s shifting political map. For voters, the overriding question is who can finally deliver stability and development in a state long defined by political flux.

Source– TNS NEWS