By Mohd Ustar Abdul Ghani
KOTA KINABALU: There are many determinants that may ascertain the outcome of the coming election.
They range from national and domestic issues, political affiliation and political sentiment.
Within the perimeters of the voting propensity, the voting pattern is very much guided by voters locality.
There are the urban elites, the sub urban voters and the rural population. They are guided by different sentiments and issues deemed closer to their hearts.
Gauging from the sentiments on the ground, and the campaigning carried out over the last few days, the political upshot is slowly shaping up.
Contrary to earlier analysis, Sabah’s local mainstream political parties are still very much in contention to form the next government.
The much hyped predictions of a proliferating national party’s influence, uncertainties and upsets seemed to slowly wither.
It is predicted that leaders of the mainstream political parties, Warisan, GRS, STAR, UPKO, UMNO will win in their respective constituencies.
Parti Bersatu Sabah’s President, Joachim Gunsalam will face a strong opposition from a PKDM candidate in Kundasang and his fate will only be revealed on the 29th November.
Based on the ongoing campaigning and previous election records, Warisan is expected to win in its previous stronghold, especially on the east coast.
Warisan is also expected to make headways into new constituencies previously won by UMNO and GRS.
In some Chinese dominated constituencies, there are pointers that Warisan has penetrated the Chinese stronghold and predicted to snatch a few seats previously won by the PH-DAP alliance.
Predominantly, Warisan is predicted to win in 26 seats comprising the urban, sub urban and rural seats.
GRS and UMNO are also predicted to triumph in their previously held seats albeit with some casualties expected.
In the 2020 election GRS won a total of 11 seats whilst UMNO triumphed in 14 constituencies.
GRS is expected to lose ground in at least 3 constituencies making its total predicted winnings reduced to 8 seats.
UMNO, by the same hypothesis may falter in at least 5 identified constituencies making its total predicted catch reduced to 9 seats.
There will be an anticipated vote swing in at least 16 identified constituencies.
This vote swing is more prevalent in the Momogun constituencies.
By and large, PKDM is forecasted to profit from the vote swing and predicted to win 5 seats in the Momogun heartland.
Based on the ground sentiment in the Chinese dominated constituencies, the Chinese voters are now more inclined to “join the ship”, referring to Warisan, a phrase commonly uttered when asked of their political stance.
The predicted vote swing especially in the Chinese dominated area will either favour Warisan or PKDM.
There are at least 8 constituencies which have a large Chinese population shared between DAP and PKR. DAP previously held 6 seats and PKR triumphed in 2 seats.
The sentiments in those constituencies are becoming apparent and the prospect of those 8 seats changing hands is becoming imminently clear as the campaigning draws to a close.
The more interesting prospect in this election is that there will be constituencies where predictions are not able to pick an outright winner.
There are at least 23 constituencies where the voting pattern and political affiliation is simply unpredictable.
This includes the Chinese constituencies of Api-Api, Luyang, Sri Tanjong, Elopura and the hot seat of Merotai where the incumbent Saifuddin Hatta will face Anwar Ibrahim hand picked, Ruji Ubi.
Out of these 23 unknown unknowns, Warisan is expected to do battle in at least 14 constituencies with either GRS, PKDM or PH.
These 23 constituencies are either Chinese dominated areas, the Momogun heartland or where the race compositions are almost equally shared.
Warisan needs to win at least 13 seats out of the 23 unpredictable constituencies to be able to form a simple majority government.
It will be a daunting task but not too remote a possibility, otherwise the prospect of a hung assembly looms and will definitely ensue in a unity government.
Amongst the mainstream political parties, perhaps the biggest casualties expected will be PBS and STAR. PBS’s destiny is seen hanging by a thread.
In the 7 constituencies it previously won, PKDM is predicted to take Tamparuli, Kiulu and Matunggong while Lumadan is predicted to fall to Warisan. Kundasang, Telupid and Tandek remained a mystery which is forecasted to be won by either PKDM, GRS or UPKO.
STAR too is facing an arduous prospect of maintaining the 6 seats held.
Tambunan has always been generous to Jeffrey Kitingan and he is expected to triumph once again.
Paginatan is expected to be won by PKDM with Liawan going to Warisan.
The remaining 3 seats of Bingkor, Tulid and Sook will surprisingly be a tussle between Warisan, PKDM and GRS. Ewon Benedick will once again win in Kadamaian but his compatriot in UPKO Wilfred Madius Tangau will face an uphill challenge against another PKDM candidate in Tamparuli.
The much hyped “Black Wave” making a splash is fast becoming a dream. Except for its leader Verdon Bahanda, who is expected to engage in a fierce battle with a Warisan candidate in the constituency of Tanjong Kapor, the other prospects are expected to drown themselves in the wave of their own making.
Though from the onset, this 17th State Election is expected to turn Sabah into a fierce election battlefield filled with uncertainties, the reality is Sabahans are becoming more wiser and resolute in their quest for a more dynamic and efficient government that will carry through their aspirations and hope in the next coming five years. Whether the “Sabah for Sabahans” or “Sabah First” holds water and shall succeed will be determined on the 29th November 2025.
In the final analysis the predicted breakdown of seats expected to be won by political parties in this election are Warisan 26, UMNO 9, GRS 8, PKDM 5, STAR 1 and UPKO 1. There are still 23 unpredictable constituencies which will only crystallize as the campaigning pulls its curtain down. By then we will have a better prediction which will determine the possible outcome of the 17th Sabah State Election.
