By Political Activist Remy Majangkim
KOTA KINABALU: Barring a snap election next year, Sabahans will decisively cast their votes to elect representatives for the Sabah State Legislative Assembly for the upcoming five-year term.
There are 73 DUN seats up for grabs after adding new seats for better management.
After the deletion of Article 6(7) from the State Constitution, there will be only three possible outcomes from the State Election: simple majority, landslide majority, or hung assembly majority.
Mathematically, it could be explained as follows:
A simple majority means A political party (singular) wins a minimum of 37 to 38 seats out of 73 seats.
Landslide victory means A political party (singular) wins a minimum of 40 to 50 seats out of 73 seats.
Hung Assembly means political parties (plural) shared between 19 and 25 seats each with no clear winner. Hence, a constitutional crisis, reverting to the role of the Yang di Pertuan Negeri to decide who “likely to command the confidence of the majority” under Article 6(3) and his discretion under Article 10(2)(a) “the appointment of a Chief Minister.”.
So let us categorise the political parties in Sabah.
Tier 1: Political parties are those that have won the previous election with a clear majority and have successfully managed the state government.
Warisan, UMNO, and Barisan Nasional.
Tier 2: Political parties are those who won the previous election between 2 and 10 seats and work together with other parties to form a government.
Pakatan Harapan (DAP), UPKO, Perikatan Nasional (STAR), Perikatan Nasional (Bersatu), Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS), and Independent
Tier 3: Political parties are those who did not win the previous election.
Parti Cinta Sabah, USNO, PGRS, SAPP, Parti Kerjasama Anak Negeri, MCA, and Amanah.
Tier 4: New Political Party such as Party Impian Sabah or equivalent.
What strategies are available under these conditions, and what is the likely outcome for the next Sabah State Election?
Political parties may choose the following:
Field all their candidates for all seats available and hope for the best.
Create a political alliance, thus creating an agreement or coalition.
The focus of the election will be on three main issues:
The Malaysia Agreement 1963.
Basic infrastructure such as water, electricity, and roads.
Experience regarding the State of Sabah management and its relations with the Federal Government.
The role of the voters is to distinguish which political parties communicate their needs effectively and fight for their lost rights.
This requires political maturity; one wrong vote will cost the voters another five years of misery, and those who did not vote have no right to complain about their predicament.
Recently, Usno President Tan Sri Pandikar Amin Mulia emphasised that Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) ought to compete for all 73 seats in the upcoming state election.
He noted that this sentiment is echoed by two other members of GRS, SAPP and Sabah STAR.
With the absence of PH, which played a crucial role in stabilising the GRS government, the future of GRS in the forthcoming election remains uncertain.
