By Political Analyst Mohd Ustar Abdul Ghani
KOTA KINABALU: “Where there are bargains, there is nothing to bar gains” a quote I wrote many years ago aptly depicts the state of Malaysian politics today.
Since the unprecedented Sheraton manoeuvre, a political expedient that caused the downfall of a legitimately elected government, Malaysian mainstream politics have metamorphosed into an irreconcilable fragmentation and dichotomisation emancipating from a power struggle that saw the nation appointing three Prime Minister within a spate of three years. i
Up until Ismail Sabri’s rise to premiership, the political climate had immensely heated up and there could well be another twist in baton change to bring us home across the finishing line when the 15th general election is due in 2023. Call in disloyalty, sell-out, deception or treachery, this political betrayal and political chaos will rise above strong political moral conscience to bring this nation forward. Volatile and treacherous, not even kafkaesque or grotesque could best describe this political quagmire.
Mainstream political parties UMNO, PKR, DAP, PPBM and islamic base PAS are all treading in murky political waters, oblivious to the imminent danger of creating a political twilight zone, recklessly disengaging from the harsh realities of compromising the people’s wellbeing and an ongoing pandemic. UMNO, once the powerhouse of Malaysian politics and the Malays, is now subjugated by capricious politicians menacingly desperate to be in power after an anticipated defeat in the 14th general election.
UMNO’s efficacy of a Malay survival was never suspected, not until the Mahathir-Anwar belligerent leadership crisis, creating a schism resulting in a polarized Malays. Anwar’s expulsion from UMNO initiated the first of a more divided Malays. Diminishingly contained and managed, the rift insidiously became even deeper and acute as Najib ascended to the premiership which saw Muhyiddin and Shafie expelled for purportedly breaching party discipline. The wound never heals a grim reminder of how fagile and vulnerable the Malays are. Malay politics is enigmatic. If their political enemies are weak they will be fighting between themselves.
UMNO is a pulpit for malay supremacy and survival. To the Malays, UMNO is sacred and its leaders divine. Prior to PKR and PPBM’s existence its much easier to understand the underlying political equation in Malaysia. The rural and urban malays are the soul of UMNO a truism of Malays are UMNO and UMNO is malay less the orthodox malays who are more aligned to islamic base PAS. The Chinese subtly divided between DAP and MCA and to make up the equation the Indians remained united and loyal to MIC.
These associations gradually changed following Anwar’s expulsion which gave birth to Anwar’s reformist party, PKR. Being multiracial, PKR is seen as a better alternative for tribal politics. Against the backdrop of Malaysia’s multiracial society, PKR consistently rose to prominence transforming centripetal to centrifugal association of the Malays, Chinese and Indians votes, manifested in the 14th general election of 2018.
Urban and elite Malays, having disenfranchised of choice are centrifugally moving towards PKR whilst rural Malays remained intactly loyal to UMNO. The Chinese and Indians have long awaited an opportunity to wriggle their way out of MCA and MIC, a component party of Barisan Nasional where UMNO having a lion share of power distribution plays “big brother”. The Chinese found strength in DAPand Indians under MIC found political solace and inspiration in PKR which will probably see the eventual slow and natural death of MCA and MIC.
DAP has always been home for the chauvinist chinese and a small fraction of Indians. Bereft political ally, its political destiny confined as an opposition, a role assumed for many years. This changed after PKR’s advent, providing the impetus for the Pakatan Harapan alliance thus availing a political choice for Malaysians. PAS could not resist joining the alliance seen by many as an unthinkable tabooed political alliance not the least DAP carries a strong connotations of infidels to PAS, a phrase commonly propagated in its political (jihad) even to its brothers in UMNO to derive political strength amongst the muslim electorates though eventually as anticipated it broke away unceremoniusly.
UMNO saw this new political dynamics as an emerging threat to its political survival. At national level its strength and supremacy is now gradually neutralised and checked. Mahathir predicted UMNO’s demise by 2020, a prediction which carries water judging by what transpired recently. If anything, the reappointment of Shahidan Kassim and Noh Omar into the cabinet is a few worrying signs that UMNO is depleted of credible and charismatic leaders.
UMNO’s intrusion into Sabah in 1986 was seen as a necessary evil. Sabah vividly remembers how PBS fell prey to UMNO’s shrewd political manoeuvre. Intense lobbying and bargaining led to PBS losing power. Like a vicious circle it came to haunt Sabah again when UMNO engineered yet again another downfall of a legitimately elected government, WARISAN in a desperate move to wrest power. Sabah once an exemplar of racial and religious unity had since subscribed to UMNO’s philosophy and in imminent danger of subscribing to racial and religious intolerance, a product of the infamous divide and rule.
WARISAN much like PKR provided a new hope for a new political dimension in Sabah. Detached from UMNO’s philosophy, it quickly became a preferred choice. Shafie, an UMNO political outcast led WARISAN to a convincing victory in the 14th general election which saw the merging of Malaysian political warlords and subsequently brought down UMNO and its allies. What ensued after that victory is history. Betrayal through the infamous Sheraton move brought down Pakatan Harapan. In recent time Warisan is seen slowly distancing itself from Pakatan Harapan, a notion that will probably see Warisan working together with Pejuang a brainchild party of Mahathir.
Though too early and premature to appraise on a Warisan-Pejuang collaboration, it should not be discounted as a mere political grapevines. Mahathir’s political gesture of a Sabahan Prime Minister should now be considered as a possible political equation. Mukriz, the President of Pejuang having detached himself from UMNO and PPBM should now detach himself from his father’s political penumbra. Politically untainted and unblemished Mukriz should now pursue his political career along a more aggressive political line. A father-Son political legacy is all too familiar in Malaysian politics. There will always be a possible misconception of Mukriz being very much under his father’s direction. Mukriz should be ready to allay this fear. Being a father’s son would not succor much his political embarkation. With due respect to the elderly statesman, Mahathir should now take leave from politics and allow Mukriz to chart his own political destiny and rise to the occasion.
Pejuang making inroad into Sabah is not a political impracticality. Much like UMNO, DAP, PKR and PPBM, it should explore that possibility of offering Malaysians in Sabah a better political options. Admittedly there will be strong resentment but if Sabahans are ready to embrace in a more pragmatic and comprehensive political endeavour, they should be ready to accept the new norm in politics, that national parties are an integral part of Sabah’s political landscape. Pejuang must first convince Malaysians of its political aspirations and a better alternative for the Malays.
Whether UMNO remains a political force and home for the Malays will only be decided in the upcoming general election. Malaysia is at a political crossroad and becoming politically fragile. Malaysia needs a Jokowi or Duterte like resolute leadership to move this country forward. Malaysian political warlords should take heed of a smooth leadership transition in Singapore. As Singapore readies herself to welcome Heng Swee Keat, a Cambridge and Harvard double masters degree holder, Malaysia is still lost.
